On that note we will be greatly helped by the two teams who are realistically fighting for that last Champions League place for next season playing each other on Sunday afternoon. With Spurs already four points clear of us and some favourable fixtures to finish their season I can’t see them missing out on third place despite the distraction of their Champions League semi final games and their incredible ability to bottle it when the going gets tough. Even their loss at home To West Ham shouldn’t be enough to derail them, but you can never be sure just when things will finally fall apart for them. We’re only a point behind Chelsea and we’re two points ahead of United so realistically we want United to win which would leave them both level on 67 points with two games to play.
For us to benefit to the maximum we would obviously need to win at Leicester, but a draw wouldn’t be the worst result as long as United can win that game. If United win both them and Chelsea will be on 67 points and a point at Leicester would leave us on 67 points too and our goal difference is superior to both of them. Chelsea would have a minimum of three goals to catch up while United would have a maximum of nine which would surely make us favourites if we can win our final two games.
Winning at home to Brighton won’t be easy for us despite how badly they have done recently as it comes between our two games against Valencia while winning at Burnley will be even tougher given our away form and the fact it comes three days after the second leg against Valencia. At the same time United will be playing two of the bottom three and they will have a real chance to try to catch up on the goal difference gap while Chelsea don’t have the easiest fixtures either and they have Europa League semi finals to contend with too. I can see it going to the last game of the season and I think we will finish in the top four if we can take seven points from our last three games.
So a point at Leicester wouldn’t be the worst result unless of course Chelsea get something at United and it would put our fate firmly back in our own hands. Of course getting a point at Leicester won’t be easy when you consider how bad we were at Wolves on Wednesday night and how bad we are generally away from home with the exception of a very good performance away to Spurs.
Leicester contain plenty of pace and a real threat on the counter attack and that’s something we seem to have a real problem coping with. Unai Emery hasn’t really done anything to improve us defensively this season, but he hasn’t been helped by long term injuries to both Rob Holding and Hector Bellerin. If we’re going to get anything from the game I think we are going to have to play five at the back.
Like many others I have been fairly critical of Shkodran Mustafi this season, but he wasn’t on the pitch at Wolves when others showed they were just as capable of making the mistakes for which we berate him. With Laurent Koscielny playing game after game at the moment I think we will have to rest him before something gives which will probably mean Mustafi coming back into the team. The other central defender will surely have to be Nacho Monreal as it’s a little unfair on Konstantinos Mavropanos to expect him to come in at the deep end again. Maybe Mavropanos can be slowly developed starting with cup games next season, but it’s asking an awful lot for him to play at this level in such important games.
If Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has recovered from his minor procedure I expect him to play, but Alexandre Lacazette might well be rested ahead of Valencia. The injury to Aaron Ramsey seems to have been a real blow to how we had being playing and we could really do with him against Leicester, but he isn’t ready to return and probably won’t ever play for us again unless we reach the Europa League Final.
We seem to have problems no matter what way we play away from home. If we try to take the game to the opposition we get taken apart on the break while we simply can’t stop the opposition if we try to sit back and hit them on the break. I would be very surprised if Leicester didn’t try to get among us and pressurise us as it seems to work for almost every other team on our travels.
If we concede the first goal we’re in a huge amount of trouble as we have only taken one point away from home so far this season after conceding the first goal. We have allowed the opposition an awful lot of shots against us compared to the shots we have taken despite having more possession than our opponents on average away from home. It’s our inability to create chances from all of our possession which is really harming us and I think it has a lot to do with us not having a genuine wide player to speak of in the squad.
The manager has to make do with what he has though and hope he can get a performance out of them to get the result we need. I would be happy with a point to keep our top four hopes alive ahead of a very difficult game at home to Valencia on Thursday night, but I have real reservations about our ability to even do that. For me our biggest problem is our lack of balance and that’s something that just can’t be sorted with the players we have so we just have to make do. It’s accentuated away from home and there can’t be many teams in the Premier League who don’t have a genuine belief they can beat us on their own patch.
That’s it for today.
See you tomorrow.
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