Friday 19 May 2017

Predictions For Premier League Gameweek 38

It's that time of the the week again when I attempt to predict the outcomes of the upcoming Premier League games. I did quite well last week with two perfect outcomes, nine correct outcomes and four incorrect. Unfortunately others in my predictions league did even better than me and I'm still in third place with no hope of winning the league as you can see from the table below.

BadgesThis WeekPTS
 1 (1)  Karl-Yngve Lund 4+1852430
 2 (2)  Rutland Gooner 5+1702210
 3 (3)  Michael Sheehy 8+1352085
 4 (4)  Wayne Hubbard 2+1552055


 
Sunday May 21

All games 3pm BST

Arsenal v Everon

Emirates Stadium, London

Arsenal did what they had to do in the last week to stay in the hunt for a top four place with wins at Stoke and at home to Sunderland. Only Chelsea and Spurs have won more home games than Arsenal with only Spurs and United conceding less goals at home and they have taken 16 points from their last six home games with clean sheets in five of those games. They have won six of their last seven games, but they have conceded more goals than the rest of the top six teams.

Alexis Sanchez has been on fire in recent games for fantasy managers and the Arsenal defenders have all done well recently too.

Everton won 1-0 at home to Watford last week, but they're going to finish seventh no matter what the outcome of this game might be. They have only won four of their 18 away games and they haven't won in their last seven games on the road. Their win last week was their first win in four games and they failed to score in the previous three games too.

Romelu Lukaku is the best fantasy option in the Everton team, but he has done all of his best work at home.

Arsenal need to win to and hope other results go their way and I think they will do so, but it will be in vain.

Prediction: 2-0

Burnley v West Ham United

Turf Moor, Burnley 

Burnley lost away to Bournemouth last week, buy they have secured their Premier League place for another season. Only six teams have won more home games, but they have only won once in their last five on their own patch. They have only won twice in their last 14 games and only the three relegated teams have scored less goals.

Burnley's defenders have done very well at home and they could be worth considering for fantasy managers in this game.

West Ham lost 4-0 at home to Liverpool last week to realistically end their hopes of finishing in the top half of the table. They have only won four of their 18 away games, but only the top six have scored more away goals and they haven't won in their last six away games. They have only won twice in their last 13 games and have only scored one goal in their last four games with only four teams conceding more goals.

I can't see any West Ham players who might make a difference for fantasy managers in this game.

With their home record Burnley should be favourites to win this game and I think they will get the better of a close affair.

Prediction: 2-1

Chelsea v Sunderland 

Stanford Bridge, London

Chelsea wrapped up the league title last week at West Brom and then beat Watford with a more or less second string team. They have won 16 of their 18 home games and have scored more goals at home than any other team. They have won 29 games so far this season and have scored more goals than any other team with only Spurs and United conceding less.

With a cup final to play next week and nothing resting on this game it's not easy for fantasy managers to know which Chelsea players will play.

Sunderland lost at home to Swansea last week and away to Arsenal in midweek and the season can't end quickly enough for them. They have lost 14 of their 18 away games with only Hull and Boro scoring less away goals and they have lost five of their last six away games without scoring in each of those five defeats. They have lost more games than any other team and only Boro have scored less goals while they have only taken five points from their last 13 games and failed to score in 11 of them.

I can't see any Sunderland players to recommend to fantasy managers.

Whatever team Chelsea put out they should be more than good enough to win this game with a few goals to spare.

Prediction: 3-0

Hull City v Tottenham Hotspur 

KCOM Stadium, Hull

Hull lost at Palace last week and that defeat confirmed their relegation to the Championship. They have only lost six of their 18 home games and have only lost one in the last nine at home, but that was their last home game and that was the result which really put an end to their hopes of staying up. Only Sunderland have lost more games and no other team has conceded more goals with only the bottom two scoring less.

I can't see any Hull players to recommend to fantasy managers this week.

Spurs beat United last week to guarantee second place and then put six past Leicester away from home on Thursday night. They have only won eight of their 18 away games, but no other team has conceded less goals on the road and they have won four of their last five away from home. They have won 11 of their last 12 games and they kept clean sheets in half of those games with only Chelsea scoring more goals and no other team conceding less.

Even with nothing riding on this game I think Spurs players could do well for fantasy managers with Harry Kane, Christian Eriksen, Dele Alli and their defenders and goalkeeper all certainly worth having.

I think Spurs will be too strong for Hull and will finish their season on a high with a comprehensive win.

Prediction: 0-3

Leicester City v Bournemouth

King Power Stadium, Leicester 

Leicester lost at City last week and they were thrashed at home to City on Thursday night. They have won 10 of their 18 home games with only six teams scoring more goals at home and they had won five in a row at home before losing to Spurs. If they lose this game they will have lost half of their games this season which is not a great return for last season's champions.

Jamie Vardy has been in very good form for fantasy managers ever since they parted ways with Claudio Ranieri and he might not be a bad fantasy purchase this week.

Bournemouth won 2-1 at home to Burnley last week and they will finish in the top half of the table if they win this game. They have only won three of their 18 away games while only three other teams have conceded more away goals, but they have only lost one of their last five games on the road. Only six teams have scored more goals than Bournemouth and only two teams have conceded more while they have taken 10 points from their last four games.

Josh King has been the gift that kept on giving for fantasy managers in the last few months and it's hard to ignore him.

I think Leicester will finish their season at home in a flurry in this game and book a place in the top half of the table.

Prediction: 3-1

Liverpool v Middlesbrough 

Anfield, Liverpool

Liverpool won away to West Ham last week to keep their fate in their own hands on the final day of the season. They have only lost two of their 18 home games, but they haven't won in their last three at home and only the top two have scored more at home. They have taken 24 points from their last 11 games with clean sheets in four of their last five and only the top two scoring more goals.

With a lot riding on this game Phillippe Coutinho could be the Liverpool player to have for fantasy managers as they look for the win they need.

Boro lost at home to Southampton last week, but they will at least manage to finish second last despite their relegation thanks to Sunderland doing even worse than them. They have only won once in 18 away games and no other team has drawn more away games, but they have lost their last three on the road and conceded 11 goals in the process. They have only won once in their last 20 games and have won less games and scored less goals than any other team.

I can't see any Boro players who might make a difference for fantasy managers.

Liverpool will finish in the top four if they win this game and I think they should be good enough to get the result they need.

Prediction: 2-0

Manchester United v Crystal Palace

Old Trafford, Manchester 

United lost at Spurs last week and they managed a 0-0 draw at Southampton in midweek, but their thoughts are firmly on their Europa Cup Final next Wednesday night. They have drawn 10 of their 18 home games with only Spurs conceding less goals at home and it's their home form which has cost them a top four place as they have taken more points away from home. They haven't won in five games and have only scored two goals in those games, but only Spurs have conceded less goals.

With that Europa League final three days after this game it's impossible to know which United players will play and it's best for fantasy managers to avoid them.

Palace won 4-0 at home to Hull last week to guarantee their safety and condemn Hull to the Championship. They have only lost half of their 18 away games and only six other teams have scored more goals away from home. They had lost three in a row without scoring before beating Hull last week and they're the highest scorers in the bottom half of the league.

With United likely to field a second string team both Wilfried Zaha and Christian Benteke could possibly do well for fantasy managers in this game.

Even with a second string team I think United should at least be able to get a point from this game.

Prediction: 1-1

Southampton v Stoke City

St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton 

Southampton won at Boro last week and drew at home to United in midweek and three points in this game will be enough for them to finish eighth. They have only won six of their 18 home games and haven't scored in their last four at home with only Sunderland scoring less goals at home. They're the lowest scorers in the top half of the table and they have only won once in their last seven games and they failed to score in five of those games.

Southampton's defenders and goalkeeper have done well recently for fantasy managers and they are certainly worth considering in this game.

Stoke lost 4-1 at home to Arsenal last week and results haven't gone their way in recent weeks. They have only taken two points from their last seven away games and they failed to score in six of those games. They have only won once in their last 10 games and only four other teams have scored less goals. 

I can't see any Stoke players who might be of any interest to fantasy managers this week.

I think Southampton will get the win they need to finish eighth despite their lack of goals at home recently.

Prediction: 2-0

Swansea City v West Bromwich Albion

Liberty Stadium, Swansea

Swansea won away to Sunderland last week and those three points meant they avoided the drop. They have taken 16 points from their last seven home games, but only Sunderland have conceded more goals at home. Only Sunderland have lost more games than Swansea and only Hull have conceded more goals, but 10 points and three clean sheets in their last four games was just about enough to keep them up.

With relegation avoided for another season both Gylfi Sigurdsson and Fernando Llorente might do well for fantasy managers in this game.

West Brom lost at home to Chelsea last week and away to City in midweek and those defeats meant they dropped out of the top eight for the first time in months. They have only won three of their 18 away games and they haven't won in eight games on the road with only four other teams scoring less away goals. They have only taken two points in their last eight games and they failed to score in six of those games.

I can't see any West Brom players who might make an impression for fantasy managers this week.

This could be a close game, but I think home advantage should be enough for Swansea to take the three points.

Prediction: 2-1

Watford v Manchester City

Vicarage Road, Watford 

Watford lost at Everton and Chelsea in the last week and they were probably a little lucky the relegation battle didn't catch up with them. They have won three of their last four home games and kept clean sheets in each of those three wins too. They have lost their last five games and failed to score in four of them and they will part ways with Walter Mazzarri once the season ends.

I can't see any Watford players who might make a difference for fantasy managers on the final day of the season.

City won at home to Leicester and West Brom in the last week to more or less book their place in the Champions League next season. Only Chelsea have won more away games than City and no other team has scored more goals away from home with only one defeat in their last seven away games. They are unbeaten in seven games with five wins and 18 goals in those games with only Chelsea and Spurs scoring more goals so far this season.

Gabriel de Jesus, Kevin de Bruyne, David Silva and Leroy Sane have all done well for fantasy managers and they might not do too badly in this game either.

I think City will get the result they need to guarantee third place and avoid the final qualifying round for next season's Champions League.

Prediction: 1-3

That's it for this season.

See you next season.

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