Monday, February 28, 2011

Arsenal's Ability To Self Destruct Costs Them Dearly In The Carling Cup Final.

Arsenal's quest for all four trophies is no longer on after yesterday's defeat to Birmingham in the Carling Cup final. It happened in a manner which Arsenal fans are all too used to at this stage, as it was a self inflicted defeat. The comical manner of Birmingham's winning goal was something fans of other clubs associate with Arsenal, and it seems that we just cannot eradicate it from our game. It was a bitter blow to take, as Arsenal looked to be the much stronger team with extra time looming, but such is the lot of an Arsenal fan.

Arsene Wenger picked the expected starting 11 with the possible exception of Tomas Rosicky filling in for the injured Cesc Fabregas. It meant Samir Nasri was playing on the right side of Arsenal's attack, and the team looked very well balanced. I wasn't too impressed with Rosicky's recent performances, and I was a little apprehensive when I saw he was included in the team. With Cesc missing I really felt Arsenal needed to have Nasri in a central role where he could influence the game a lot more.

I settled into my seat in the local supporters club along with a lot of other Wicklow Gunners in expectation of Arsenal's first trophy since our club was formed in 2008.  The early signs were not encouraging as Wojciech Szczesny took Lee Bowyer down in the penalty area in a one on one situation, but thankfully Arsenal were saved by an offside flag. The replays showed the decision to be incorrect, and it was a very lucky escape for Arsenal at that stage. If the penalty was awarded the chances are that Szczesny would have been sent off too, and Arsenal would have been a goal and a player down with 85 minutes remaining to play.

I hoped the early scare would wake Arsenal up, but some of the players seemed a little nervous to me, as passes were misplaced time and again. The closet Arsenal came in the early exchanges was when Nasri fed Andrey Arshavin in the box, and he turned and shot, but the keeper saved it with his legs. There were half chances at either end as the half progressed until the game really came to life with the opening goal. Unfortunately for Arsenal it was Birmingham who scored it through their giant striker Nikola Zigic.


Bacary Sagna played an awful pass to nobody in particular in Arsenal's half, and Birmingham won they ball. They immediately hit it towards Zigic at the far post but Laurent Koscielny managed to head it out for a corner. When the corner came in it was headed goalwards by Roger Johnson, and Zigic got up above the Arsenal defence to flick the ball into the goal with his head. It came from Birmingham's first corner, and it exposed Arsenal's defensive frailty from set pieces. Birmingham were ecstatic and the Arsenal players now knew they were in a real match with 28 minutes gone.

Arsenal tried to up the pace, and they took control as Birmingham dropped deeper and deeper. They were hoping to hit Arsenal on the break, as a second goal would have given them a huge advantage. They almost got that second goal, but thankfully Szczesny made a point blank save from Zigic, who didn't look as capable with the ball at his feet.

The equaliser  came only 10 minutes after Birmingham's goal, but it came at a price for Arsenal. Jack Wilshere smacked a great shot off the bar, and Arshavin collected the rebound. He did really well to get to the end line, and cut the ball back for Robin Van Persie who had pulled away from his marker. He managed to volley the ball home with his chocolate leg, but he jarred his leg off the thigh of his marker. He immediately went down in pain, but he managed to come back into the game after a short spell on the sideline.

With Arsenal back in the game it seemed like only a matter of time before they would turn the game in their favour. Nasri almost managed it before half time, and as the second half progressed Ben Foster made impressive saves from three or four Arsenal efforts. Birmingham were still making Arsenal uncomfortable at the back on the excursions forward, but Arsenal certainly had the upper hand. On one of those excursions Keith Fahey hit the post and the ball rebounded back into play behind the helpless Szczesny. It was ca lucky escape for Arsenal, and I thought they would win as luck seemed to be on their side.

Unfortunately that luck didn't hold out as RVP went off after 68 minutes, and he seemed to be suffering from the knock he took in scoring the goal. The latest news would seem to indicate that he will be out for a while, but there's no word on whether he will recover in time for the trip to Barcelona. Arshavin went off eight minutes later, and he looked absolutely spent to me. It was the third game in a row that he had started, and it looked like they had taken their toll on him. With Nicklas Bendtner and Marouane Chamakh on Arsenal still continued to press forward, and they looked the most likely to grab a winner before extra time would be needed.

That all changed in the last minute of normal time in bizzare circumstances. Zigic headed a long ball goalwards, but there was absolutely no danger as the ball rolled towards Szczesny. Koscielny was in front of him, and all they had to do was get their calls right, and the ball would have been safely in the keepers hands. However what happened next was a reminder of why some people think Arsenal are poor at the back. Koscielny swung a leg at the ball, but pulled out at the very last moment. Szczesny was so close to him that he couldn't react in time, and he could only knock the ball to Obafemi Martins who had the easy task of poking it into an empty net.


It was a dreadful mistake by Koscielny in my opinion, as he should not have pulled out of hitting the ball at such a late stage. He should have cleared the ball and dealt with any repercussions from his keeper afterwards. You cannot change your mind at the very last moment, and expect other players to read your intentions or react to them either. The joy among the Birmingham players and fans was obvious, and the Arsenal contingent looked dejected.

The referee added four extra minutes, but Arsenal couldn't muster a worthwhile attack in that time, and the Cup went to Birmingham. I have absolutely no doubt that Arsenal would have won if Cesc had been fit to play, but I thought it was a mistake to play Rosicky in his role. He played pretty well, but Nasri looked far better when he moved into a central role in the second half. Far too many of the Arsenal players contributed too little in a game where they should have given everything they had. The trophy was there for the taking, but unfortunately Arsenal threw it away in the end.

Without that mistake at the end I think Arsenal would definitely have had the upper hand in extra time, but they cannot expect to win games when they gift goals to the opposition. The cost to Arsenal season will be measured when the full extent of RVP's injury is known, but it could be huge. It was hoped that a Carling Cup win would put an end to the six year wait for a trophy, but the result only increased the questions being asked about Arsenal's ability to win big games.

The next game for Arsenal is on Wednesday night against Orient in the FA Cup fifth round replay at the Emirates. It will be a huge test for the Arsenal players to try to lift themselves after yesterday's disappointment, but they have to do it. They cannot afford to lose at home to a side two leagues below them in the FA Cup, or the vultures will be circling over their heads. If Arsenal fail to beat Orient it could destroy what confidence they have, and it could cost them their chances in the two most important competitions this season.

With "Manure" travelling to Chelsea tomorrow night and Liverpool on Sunday Arsenal have to bounce back with victories over Orient and then in the Premier League next Saturday against Sunderland. They are two crucial games to ensure the season stays on track, and nothing but two wins will do in those games.
I hope the Arsenal players are hurting as much as us fans today after yesterday's result, and I hope they can use that pain to push them on to greater things. I'm sure none of them had to make their way to work this morning with sore heads as well as dented pride, and had to listen to workmates telling them Arsenal are bottlers. Until Arsenal can show otherwise that tag will stick to them, and I can only hope they prove all of the doubters wrong by winning their next two games. After that it's Barcelona and possibly "Manure" in the FA Cup, and they will be opportunities to show that Arsenal are a real force to be reckoned with. If Cesc and RVP can be back for those games I'm still confident Arsenal have every chance of getting the results they need, but without them it's a huge task.

That's it for today.

Here's the highlights from yesterdays game with thanks to 101greatgoals as always.

See You Tomorrow. 

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Arsenal's Carling Cup Final Against Birmingham City Previewed.

It has been four years since Arsenal made a cup final appearance, but this Sunday that statistic will change. At 4pm on Sunday afternoon Arsenal will take to the Wembley pitch to play Birmingham City in the Carling Cup final. It's their first chance to win a trophy this season, but as it stands they are still heavily involved in three other competitions. The Premier League and the FA Cup are certainly also winnable, but their task in the Champions League is not an easy one.

Those other competitions might be more important than the Carling Cup, but for one day only Arsenal can concentrate on winning their first trophy in almost six years. In Arsenal's previous appearance in the Carling Cup final under Arsene Wenger they played a mixture of youth and experience, and ended up losing 2-1 to Chelsea. I don't think the boss will play a weakened team in the final this time though, as the need for a trophy is of the utmost importance.Despite their problems with injuries I have no doubt that a fully committed Arsenal team are too good for Birmingham. The only things that can stop Arsenal winning are a poor display on the day or poor refereeing.

Those injury problems mean Arsenal will be without their captain Cesc Fabregas, as the game has come too soon after he picked up his hamstring injury on Wednesday night against Stoke RFC. Cesc isn't a happy man at the thought of not being able to lead Arsenal out in a cup final for the first time as captain. The good news on his injury is that he will probably be back for the trip to Barcelona on March 8th. He has picked up quite a few hamstring injuries in the last couple of seasons, and it's a worrying thing for both him and Arsenal. Players who suffer frequent hamstring injuries can quite often be plagued by them for their whole career, and I hope that isn't the case for Cesc.

Besides the absence of Cesc Arsenal will also be without Theo Walcott after he picked up an ankle injury in that same game on Wednesday night. He has had his troubles with ankle injuries in the past, and the boss has said he will be out for a few weeks at least. It means he won't be available for the trip to Barcelona, but hopefully he will be back soon after that, as Arsenal's league campaign reaches a climax. Both Walcott and Cesc are real goal threats in the Arsenal team, and their presence will be sorely missed.

There is some good injury news though with the return of Robin Van Persie, Laurent Koscielny and Abu Diaby to the squad after various injuries and suspension kept them out of Wednesday's game. RVP has been in such good form recently that his return is a huge boost to the team, and he will also captain the team in Cesc's absence. With nine goals in his last five Premier League games RVP is the most in form striker in the league at the moment. I'm sure Birmingham will remember the goal he scored when Arsenal won 3-0 at their ground only a short while ago.

Koscielny has formed a very good central defensive partnership with Johan Djourou this season, and it has helped them to look a lot more solid at the back. His reading of the game is very good, and he is also very good when the ball is on the ground. Unfortunately against Birmingham the ball won't spend too much time on the ground when Birmingham are in possession. Koscielny will have a very tough job trying to challenge the tallest player in the Premier League in the air, but hopefully he will get plenty of help from Djourou. Birmingham's Nikola Zigic is 6'8", and he can be a handful for any centre back on his day.

Diaby has had a stop start career for Arsenal ever since he had his leg shattered by an awful challenge against Sunderland five years ago. He rarely plays more than three or four games before succumbing to some leg injury or other, and it looks like his career is set to continue in that fashion. It's a shame that Arsenal have never managed to see exactly how good he might have been, but when he does play at his best he can make a real difference. I know he can be incredibly frustrating at times when be twirls continually on the ball, but he has the ability to be a special player at times too.

Arsenal didn't have the easiest passage to get this far in the Carling Cup, but it was certainly an interesting journey. Their first game was a third round trip to the Spuds in late September, and they totally dominated the game before winning 4-1 after extra time. In the next round they were drawn away to Newcastle, and again they totally dominated the game and scored four goals without reply. That was followed by a fairly routine 2-0 win at home to Wigan which set up a semi-final against Ipswich Town. The first leg was an awful game which Arsenal lost 1-0, but they won the return leg at home 3-0 with a fantastic goal from Bendtner.

When it comes to the starting 11 against Birmingham I don't think it's exactly rocket science working out who will play in most of the positions. I would be surprised if Wojciech Szczesny didn't play in goal, but there is the possibility of the boss playing Manuel Almunia instead. I would imagine that the back four will consist of Djourou, Koscielny, Bacary Sagna and Gael Clichy. In midfield I would imagine Alex Song and Jack Wilshere will be joined by Samir Nasri who will play the role vacated by the injured Cesc. The front three aren't quite so easy to predict, but RVP and Andrey Arshavin are dead certs to start, and I have a feeling Nicklas Bendtner will get the nod on the right hand side.

There are other options of course, and Tomas Rosicky, Denilson, Marouane Chamakh, Sebastien Squillaci, and Diaby will all be hoping the boss chooses them in the starting team. Those five players should all be on the bench along with Almunia and probably Emmanuel Eboue too. It's certainly a strong enough team to be more than a match for the challenge of Birmingham, and I expect them to give the game everything they have. There may be a FA Cup replay to play against Leyton Orient on Wednesday night, but the Carling Cup final is far more important for the moment. I'm sure Arsenal will play all the players who don't start in the Carling Cup when they play Orient, and they should be good enough to win that game too.

Arsenal have played Birmingham twice already this season in the Premier League, and they won both of those games. They beat them 2-1 at home back in October in a far from convincing performance, but in early January Arsenal went to Birmingham and played them off the pitch. The 3-0 scoreline on that day was not an accurate depiction of how dominant Arsenal were, and if Birmingham allow Arsenal to dominate again they will pay the price for it.

In that game in January Birmingham tried to intimidate Arsenal as much as they could, but they couldn't get near the ball most of the time. A team that includes Roger Johnson, Liam Ridgewell, Barry Ferguson and Lee Bowyer is never going to be pretty to watch, and their first thought is more likely to be what damage can I do to my opponent rather than to try to play football. Arsenal have shown time and again this season that they will not be intimidated by bullying tactics from their opponents, and I expect more of the same on Sunday.

In that 3-0 victory Bowyer stamped on Sagna off the ball, as well as raking him with his studs, and he ended up getting a three game ban for his actions. Throughout his career he has shown himself to be a thoroughly reprehensible character both on and off the pitch, and how he has not ended up in jail for his antics off the pitch I cannot understand. I won't go into them here, but suffice it to say I'm glad Arsenal don't have any Asian players in their team. He has received the most yellow cards since the inception of the Premier League, as well as a fair deal of red cards too. If Arsenal beat Birmingham on Sunday it will give me immense pleasure to see him take the defeat badly.

The boss said Wilshere will be a key player with Cesc not playing, and a lot more will go through him in the game. Wilshere has being getting better by the game this season, and it's hard to believe that this is his first full season in the Premier League. I just love the sight of him bringing the ball out from defence, and spraying passes around the pitch. He may not be scoring too many goals just yet, but he got plenty as a younger player. When he has fully settled into the team I am sure the goals will come for him, and he will be one of the biggest stars in the Premier League.

In my predicted team selection I said Nasri would play the Cesc role, but judging by what the boss said Wilshere could well fill in for Cesc. I do think Nasri will play centrally though, and he tends to play even better when Cesc isn't in the team. That's not to say he is hindered by Cesc, but he takes more responsibility for the ball when Cesc isn't there. It isn't easy to fill the boots of the most creative player in any of the top five leagues in Europe, but Nasri is the man to do it in my opinion.

The defence will have to be strong when Birmingham try to launch an aerial bombardment on them, and I think they will hold up very well. When Birmingham have free kicks and corners they will have all of their big players piling in on Arsenal's keeper. I just hope Szczesny is the keeper, as he is far better at coping with those tactics than Almunia is. Arsenal are bound to have far more of the ball than Birmingham, and the Wembley pitch can be very draining. The more chasing Birmingham have to do the harder it will be for them, and they are bound to tire as the game goes on. A few of their players are getting on a bit, and Arsenal need to put those players under as much as pressure as possible.


I think Arshavin may have an important role to play in this game at some stage. He is fond of performing well on the big stage, and Wembley is one of the bigger stages in world football. I'm hoping to see him taking on Stephen Carr, and showing him up to be the average full back he always was when he played for Ireland. It would probably make more sense if Rosicky played on the right, but my feeling is the boss feels Bendtner deserves to play whether the role suits him or not. He has played four Carling Cup games this season, and scored in three of them. If he's really as good as he thinks he is then hopefully he can show the Arsenal fans in this game.

I'm predicting a 3-1 win for Arsenal with the goals coming from RVP, Nasri and Arshavin, and a nice shiny trophy making it's way to the Emirates. It won't be easy, but Arsenal are better than Birmingham, and they need to show that on the day. A performance showing passion, desire and commitment added to the skill and flair Arsenal posses in abundance should be enough to see off Birmingham. Anything other than that and it could go either way. I'm confident it will be a win for Arsenal though, as I am always confident when the team I love play against any other team.
Hopefully a win will give Arsenal the confidence to push on and win the Premier League too. I have said for a long time now that I think the current "Manure" team area  poor one by their lofty standards, and I can feel a few slips on the way for them. Hopefully Arsenal can come through the game unscathed, and ready to claim their place at the top of the table in the very near future. The future is bright, the future is Arsenal!

That's it for today.

Here's a look at  how the third round of the Carling Cup was won 4-1 against The Spuds.

 

See You Tomorrow.

Friday, February 25, 2011

Predictions For Premier League Gameweek 28.

It's that time of the week again when I attempt to predict the outcome of this week's Premier League games. There are only nine games this week, as both Arsenal and Birmingham play in the Carling Cup final on Sunday afternoon. It means that neither of those teams will play in the league this week, and their games against The Spuds and Chelsea have been postponed until a later date. Chelsea will get to play later in the week when they play their rearranged game against "Manure" on Tuesday night.

My predictions last week were up to my usual standard this season, as the Premier League continued to throw up surprise after surprise. I didn't manage any perfect scorelines, but I did manage five correct outcomes, and nine incorrect. It also meant I made up a tiny bit of ground on the leader of my predictions league, but I'm so far back that it makes no difference at this stage. Here's a look at how my prediction league stands.

NC 1
(1)
_Bradley08 1360 -30 0
Up 2
(3)
essexgooner1965 1090 +80 0
Down 3
(2)
preetgreet 1040 -50 0
NC 4
(4)
Nickmc1980 935 +60 0
Down 5
(4)
aranmichael 875 0 0  
NC 6
(6)
billygooner_29 850 +35 0
NC 7
(7)
COSGOONER 720 +5 0
Up 8
(9)
Sinesladael 710 +25 0
Down 9
(8)
Imjola 615 -75 0
NC 10
(10)
oakhamgooner 580 -80 0
 
SATURDAY
 
Aston Villa v Blackburn
Aston Villa v Blackburn
 
Aston Villa have improved recently, and look likely to avoid the drop in my opinion. Darren Bent is scoring regularly for them since he joined from Sunderland, and their defence has managed to tighten up just a little. Their home record is pretty good, and they have to be favourites for all three points in this game.


Blackburn are considered a mid table team at the moment, but they are only two points ahead of Villa. The league is so tight that any team from tenth down is in relegation trouble if they lose a couple of games. Blackburn's away form has been pretty poor with nine defeats in 13 games so far, and no team has conceded more goals on their travels than them this season.

I can't see Villa slipping up in this game, and they should get all three points to move above Blackburn.

Prediction: 3-1
Everton v Sunderland
Everton v Sunderland
 
Everton are the epitome of this whole Premier League season, as it is impossible to predict what they will do next. They have only won four out of 12 home league games, and they are in serious relegation trouble unless they change that statistic. They can beat any of the top teams on their day, but they can also be beaten by any of the teams below them as well.

Sunderland have slipped a little recently, but they are still seventh, and only two points off a possible European place. With only three wins in 13 away games they don't travel too well, but they will hope to get something from an Everton team that is very up and down. Since the sale of Darren Bent both Asamoah Gyan and Kieran Richardson have stepped up and assumed their scoring duties. Those two players could well cause Everton a few problems.

After beating Chelsea in the FA Cup last week I think Everton might have eventually turned the corner, and they should just about win this game.

Prediction: 2-1

Newcastle v Bolton
Newcastle v Bolton
 
Newcastle still don't seem to be missing Andy Carroll since his big money move to Liverpool. They're ninth in the table, and only "Manure" have scored more home goals than them this season. A win in this game will put them above Bolton, and possibly Sunderland as well. A place in next season's Europa League is within their sights, and three points in this game are a necessity for that goal.

Bolton have managed to halt their slide by winning two of their last three home games, and qualifying for the last eight of the FA Cup too. Daniel Sturridge has done very well for them since joining on loan from Chelsea, and he could be their key player again. They have only won two of their 13 away games so far, and they won't find it easy to get anything out of this game.

I think Bolton will just about manage to get a point from a very tough game for both teams.

Prediction: 1-1 
Wigan v Man Utd
Wigan v Man Utd
 
Wigan are in the relegation zone with only three wins from 14 home league games so far. No team has scored less goals than them this season, and on paper they wouldn't seem to have a chance. However, they try to play good football, and once they got over their terrible start they haven't been easy to beat for any team.

"Manure" are on top of the league with a game in hand on second placed Arsenal. They get to play twice before Arsenal play again, and it could see them open up a seven point lead if they can win both games. They have only lost one game away from home in the league this season, but they have only won three. All three of those wins were very hard fought, and I don't think their away form is that of potential champions.

I think "Manure" will just about manage a win before they head to Stamford Bridge on Tuesday night.

Prediction: 1-2

Wolves v Blackpool
Wolves v Blackpool
 
Wolves find themselves at the foot of the table on goal difference, but a win could possibly move them out of the relegation zone. They have performed very well at home this season with wins against "Manure", Man City and Chelsea but they have struggled at times against teams at their own end of the table. With six home wins so far they will expect to get a positive result from this game.

Blackpool continue to defy the doubters, and the latest team to suffer at their hands were the Spuds on Tuesday night. It was a huge win for Blackpool, as it halted their recent slide, and gave them some breathing space. Their away form has been pretty good, but their inability to keep a clean sheet could be their undoing. With Charlie Adam suspended Blackpool might struggle to create as many chances as usual too.

I think Wolves will do themselves a huge favour by getting the two points in a tight game.

Prediction: 2-1
SUNDAY
 
West Ham v Liverpool
West Ham v Liverpool 
 
West Ham are fighting hard to get out of the relegation zone, but they need to improve their home record if that is going to happen. Three wins and 14 goals in 13 home games is real relegation form, but a couple of wins in a row would soon change that. It seems that they always seem to falter just as they look likely to get out of the relegation zone.

Liverpool's away form has improved since the return of Kenny Dalglish, but it has to get even better if they are to seriously challenge for fourth place. A win in this game would see them only five points behind the fourth placed Spuds, but with only 12 goals away from home they are struggling to get the goals needed.

West Ham have had a week off since their qualification for the last eight of the FA Cup, but Liverpool had a European game on Wednesday night. I still think Liverpool will win, but it won't be easy for them. 

Prediction: 1-2

Man City v Fulham
Man City v Fulham
 
Man City look to have fallen away in the race for the Premier League title, but they now need to concentrate on the run in to ensure Champions League qualification. They still have a very talented squad, and Champions League qualification should be the bare minimum for them. They will be buoyed by their qualification for the last 16 in the Europa League,  and they are still in the FA Cup too. They may have a few injuries, but they are huge favourites to win this game.

Fulham still have a very poor away record with only two wins in almost two seasons. They have managed to draw quite a few of their away games this season, and no team has conceded less goals away from home than they have. Their problems are trying to score away from home, as only Wolves have scored less goals than them on their travels this season.

I think City should have enough to get the win against goal shy Fulham, and keep themselves firmly in third place.

Prediction: 2-0
 
 MONDAY
 
Stoke v West Brom
Stoke v West Brom
 
Stoke RFC were beaten for the tenth time on the road this season when Arsenal just about scraped past them on Wednesday night. Their home form is a lot better than that though, and they will be favourites to add to their seven home wins. Their reliance on set pieces could well be a winner in this game against a West Brom team who have struggled from set pieces recently.

West Brom are only one point above the relegation zone, and they have the worst defence in the league too. Their nine away defeats have put them in real trouble, and they cost Roberto Di Matteo his job. Roy Hodgson should improve their defensive coaching, but I think they will struggle in this game, and they look likely to be relegated too.


Stoke RFC should have too much for West Brom, and should win by a couple of goals despite playing the worse football.

Prediction: 2-0
________________________________________________________________________________
TUESDAY
 
Chelsea v Man Utd
 
Chelsea cannot afford to lose this match, or their season will have just about fallen apart. It's only February, and they are already out of the FA Cup and Premier League, and the Champions League is their only hope of a trophy. Their defence of their double has been a shambles, after a great start to the season, and they will be very anxious to get one over on "Manure". The big question for them will be who starts up front, as Fernado Torres has got the nod over Didier Drogba recently. They still have the best defensive record at home in the league, and a win would move them back into the coveted top four.

"Manure" will be looking to take advantage of Arsenal not playing, and open up a gap at the top of the table. They have struggled on their travels this season, and they will do very well to get anything out of this game despite Chelsea's poor recent form. Wayne Rooney seems to be eventually returning to form, but his return of five goals so far is very poor for a player of his class. If he can turn it on in this game he could well make the difference for them.

I'm predicting a 1-1 draw, but only because I don't want to tempt the fates by predicting a Chelsea win. I don't like to cheer Chelsea, but that's exactly what I'll be doing in this game.

Prediction 1-1 
_______________________________________________________________________________
That's it for today, but I'll be back tomorrow to preview Arsenal's Carling Cup final with Birmingham City.

See You Tomorrow.